"Surrender, you fool, you will live!" FPV Footage from the 2nd Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, clearing the approaches to Andriivka. After a cinematic opening shot of a Ukrainian soldier marching through a field, we see the detritus of a hard-won battle position – shredded tarps, an enemy corpse, an unexploded artillery shell, and so on. The Russians here have been living a subterranean existence, burrowed into the ground like mole people. A quick transition to drone view shows a Ukrainian soldier tossing a grenade into a hole and then clearing the blast radius, after which his comrade dumps a few rounds into the opening. After firing into a few recently abandoned holes, the Ukrainian squad is rewarded with return fire. The squad continues and must take shelter in recently captured holes to evade incoming fire, which may have been aviation-delivered ordnance according to the original post.

This days-old footage provides perspective on the liberation of Andriivka and Klischiivka, neighboring hamlets a few miles south of Bakhmut, both of which are in Ukrainian hands. These tiny villages have little inherent value but represent a tactical gain and an operational opportunity for the Ukrainians. According to post attributed to the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade observes that gaining the Klischiivka-Andriivka line places his unit in position to exercise fire control over a portion of Bakhmut and is an important milestone in the eventual encirclement of the city. According to The Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian troops who participated in the operation attributed their success to high morale, sufficient training, sufficient resources for artillery fire and drone strikes, good coherence between Ukrainian units, and effective reconnaissance. Russia, on the other hand, shoved elements of airborne, Spetsnaz, and 3rd Corps units into defensive positions resulting in a muddled command structure and little effective coordination between adjacent units. Russian milbloggers acknowledged that effective Ukrainian EW systems, nearly continuous aerial reconnaissance, and highly accurate artillery fire played a role in the Ukrainian advance.

3rd Brigade sources claim that the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade was utterly destroyed as a fighting unit. Formed last year, the 72nd consisted mostly of volunteers and their fate will doubtless affect recruiting efforts moving forward. The 31st and 83rd Brigades were also severely mauled and must now withdraw and reconstitute. At least one separate battalion composed entirely of “football hooligans” (I just learned that this is a thing) “just f***ed off,” according to the Ukrainian 3rd Brigade deputy commander. Despite Russian losses, control of the villages remains contested, with Russia deploying drones, FABs (bombs), and artillery to delay the Ukrainian advance. Ukraine fully expects a counterattack once the Russian leadership are able to cobble together a coherent force out of the remnants of their shattered brigades.

The consequences of this Ukrainian victory will not be fully understood for some days of weeks. This seizure of a tactical objective places a moderately important operational target (Bakhmut) within reach. But this may have larger operational and strategic ramifications for a Russian Army that is bleeding to death and can not soon make good its losses. The Russian leadership recently transferred several higher quality brigades from the vicinity of Bakhmut to Zaporizhia in hopes of cauterizing the wound around Robotyne, and now Russian commanders will have to consider the wisdom of that decision. Without an operational reserve they will be forced to laterally redeploy damaged units from one sector of the front to another in hopes of preventing a breakthrough. Another large-scale mobilization may be inevitable, but it may not come in time to prevent Russian lines from crumbling. I have also theorized in the past that Russian society may not be willing to endure mass mobilization, and that such an action might risk a 1917-style collapse, but I am no longer so sure of the likelihood of this scenario. The toxic propaganda of Russian state media seems to have bludgeoned the population into either full acceptance of the war or into a state of apathy and paralysis that Russian society may just continue to bleed.

About the Author

Cam

Cam served as an infantry officer in the Marine Corps, deploying to the Horn of Africa and participating in combat operations in Iraq. He currently works in the maritime industry and in the defense sector as an instructor of combined arms planning and operations. An avid sailor, Cam founded and directs Triumph Sailing, a nonprofit that supports veterans and first responders through adventure and fellowship on the water. Triumph Sailing is preparing for its big yearly event, an offshore race in the Gulf of Mexico with an all veteran crew. You can support the mission at Tri-Sail.Org.